基于机器学习与多源数据的鄂尔多斯盆地南部延长组致密砂岩脆性定量评价

Quantitative Brittleness Evaluation of Tight Sandstone in the Yanchang Formation, Southern Ordos Basin, Based on Machine Learning and Multi-Source Data

  • 摘要: 鄂尔多斯盆地南部的致密油资源丰富,但其主力储层延长组致密砂岩具有强非均质性,导致基于单一参数或线性组合的传统脆性评价方法适用性受限,影响了压裂“甜点”的精准识别。为更真实地表征储层脆性,本文以鄂南延长组致密砂岩为研究对象,通过开展高温高压三轴力学实验、巴西劈裂抗拉强度测试及X射线衍射分析,系统揭示了矿物组分、温压条件及纹层结构对岩石力学性质的控制机理。在此基础上,引入分形几何理论,将岩石破裂后的分形维数作为定量表征其真实脆性程度的指标。采用梯度提升树(GBDT)机器学习算法,融合基于能量、弹性、强度及剪切机制的4类基础脆性指数,构建了非线性综合脆性指数(CBI)预测模型。研究结果表明:①破裂分形维数能有效量化岩石破裂的复杂程度,且随围压升高呈规律性下降;②GBDT模型能有效捕捉多源参数间的复杂非线性关系,全量样本拟合决定系数(R2)达0.9749,交叉验证预测均方根误差(RMSE)为0.0467;③特征重要性分析显示,强度参数(抗拉与抗压强度之比)的贡献度(0.4584)显著高于其他参数,表明“拉-压强度差”是该区致密砂岩脆性发育的主控力学机制;④基于测井资料建立的动态岩石力学参数解释模型,将CBI模型应用于鄂尔多斯盆地南缘红河油田HH26井延长组长8段,CBI较高层段(0.70)对应的现场破裂压力梯度(1.83 MPa/100 m)明显低于CBI较低层段(0.51,2.11 MPa/100 m),预测的脆性有利区与实际压裂响应特征吻合较好。本研究建立了一套以分形维数为目标、机器学习为手段的致密砂岩脆性定量评价方法,明确了强度参数在脆性评价中的主导作用,可为鄂尔多斯盆地南部致密油储层的压裂层段优选与高效改造提供定量参考。

     

    Abstract: The southern Ordos Basin is rich in tight oil resources. However, the strong heterogeneity of its main reservoir, the tight sandstone of the Yanchang Formation, limits the applicability of traditional brittleness evaluation methods based on single parameters or linear combinations, affecting the accurate identification of fracturing “sweet spots”. To more authentically characterize reservoir brittleness, this study focuses on the tight sandstone of the Yanchang Formation in the southern Ordos Basin. Through high-temperature and high-pressure triaxial mechanical tests, Brazilian splitting tensile strength tests, and X-ray diffraction analysis, the controlling mechanisms of mineral composition, temperature-pressure conditions, and laminated structures on rock mechanical properties were systematically revealed. Furthermore, fractal geometry theory was introduced, and the fractal dimension of post-fracture rock surfaces was used as an index to quantitatively characterize the true brittleness. The Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) machine learning algorithm was employed to integrate four fundamental brittleness indices based on energy, elasticity, strength, and shear mechanisms, constructing a nonlinear comprehensive brittleness index (CBI) prediction model. The results indicate that: (1) The fracture fractal dimension can effectively quantify the complexity of rock failure and shows a regular decrease with increasing confining pressure; (2) The GBDT model can effectively capture the complex nonlinear relationships among multi-source parameters, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9749 for the full sample set and a cross-validation root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0467; (3) Feature importance analysis reveals that the contribution of the strength parameter (the ratio of tensile to compressive strength, 0.4584) is significantly higher than that of other parameters, indicating that the “tensile-compressive strength difference” is the dominant mechanical mechanism controlling brittleness development in the tight sandstone of this area; (4) By applying a dynamic rock mechanical parameter interpretation model established from well-logging data to the Chang-8 Member of Well HH26 in Honghe Oilfield on the southern margin of the Ordos Basin, layers with higher CBI (0.70) exhibited a significantly lower on-site fracture pressure gradient (1.83 MPa/100 m) compared to layers with lower CBI (0.51, 2.11 MPa/100 m), and the predicted favorable brittleness zones showed good agreement with actual fracturing responses. This study establishes a quantitative brittleness evaluation method for tight sandstone, using fractal dimension as the target and machine learning as the means, clarifying the dominant role of strength parameters in brittleness evaluation. It can provide a quantitative reference for the optimization of fracturing intervals and efficient stimulation in tight oil reservoirs in the southern Ordos Basin.

     

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